Hamburg 2-4 Braunschweig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
57%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.61
Over
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
21%
5.85
2-3
40%
2.07
4-5
26%
2.54
6+
13%
5.55
Value flag · 0-1 at 5.85 — our 21% vs market 12.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.69
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
16.6
X/1
15%
4.22
X/2
9%
14.2
X/X
6%
7.86
2/1
10%
18.9
2/2
7%
10.45
2/X
8%
18.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Hamburg win — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
66%
-9.6pp
23%
Draw
19%
+3.4pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+6.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.0pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamburg EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Braunschweig EU Bookmakers 18%
-4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%
2.08/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.95
+14% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -12%
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
456 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 72%
31.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
22.6 Crosses 16.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamburg
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Braunschweig
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.27 xG 1.54
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
482 Passes 225
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
08.11.2024 Braunschweig Braunschweig 3-1 HT 1-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
27.04.2024 Braunschweig Braunschweig 0-4 HT 0-2 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
24.11.2023 Hamburg Hamburg 2-1 HT 2-0 Braunschweig Braunschweig AL2
29.01.2023 Hamburg Hamburg 4-2 HT 2-1 Braunschweig Braunschweig AL2
17.07.2022 Braunschweig Braunschweig 0-2 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
08.08.2021 Braunschweig Braunschweig 1-2 HT 1-1 Hamburg Hamburg AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamburg
2-4
AWAY Braunschweig
0.79 xG 1.33
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
454 Passes 241
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 31
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hamburg vs Braunschweig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Braunschweig beat Hamburg 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Hamburg at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Hamburg had 62% of the ball to Braunschweig's 38%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 0.79 to 1.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hamburg had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Hamburg and 1.17 for Braunschweig.

What was the final score of Hamburg vs Braunschweig?

Hamburg 2-4 Braunschweig in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamburg vs Braunschweig?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Hamburg 57%, draw 23%, Braunschweig 21%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hamburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hamburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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