Lierse Kempenzonen 1-0 Patro Eisden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.75
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
48%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.19
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.42
6+ Goals
10%
13.35
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.42 — our 26% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
26%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
23%
+4.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.7pp
48%
Away Win
53%
-5.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.2pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lierse Kempenzonen EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Patro Eisden EU Bookmakers 57%
-4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.22/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/0.85
-9% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / +9%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
281 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 80%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.1
18.1 Crosses 24.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lierse Kempenzonen
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Patro Eisden
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.35 xG 1.47
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
339 Passes 194
78% Pass Accuracy 67%
18 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2024 Patro Eisden Patro Eisden 3-3 HT 2-1 Lierse Kempenzonen Lierse Kempenzonen BEL2
23.02.2024 Patro Eisden Patro Eisden 3-0 HT 1-0 Lierse Kempenzonen Lierse Kempenzonen BEL2
20.08.2023 Lierse Kempenzonen Lierse Kempenzonen 2-1 HT 1-0 Patro Eisden Patro Eisden BEL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lierse Kempenzonen
1-0
AWAY Patro Eisden
0.72 xG 1.02
58% Ball Possession 42%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
314 Passes 203
79% Pass Accuracy 66%
17 Box Touches 33
8 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lierse Kempenzonen vs Patro Eisden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lierse Kempenzonen squeezed past Patro Eisden 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Patro Eisden at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Lierse Kempenzonen had 58% of the ball to Patro Eisden's 42%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.72 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lierse Kempenzonen and 2.33 for Patro Eisden.

What was the final score of Lierse Kempenzonen vs Patro Eisden?

Lierse Kempenzonen 1-0 Patro Eisden in the Belgium - 1st Division on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lierse Kempenzonen vs Patro Eisden?

Before kick-off our model rated an Patro Eisden win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Lierse Kempenzonen 28%, draw 25%, Patro Eisden 48%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Patro Eisden) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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