NEC Nijmegen 2-1 RKC Waalwijk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.23
Over Pick
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.56
No
43%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1
24%
4.53
2-3
34%
1.91
4-5
27%
2.82
6+
15%
7.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.28
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1
19%
4.64
X/2
7%
9.15
X/X
12%
5.9
2/1
7%
20.75
2/2
10%
6.47
2/X
10%
14.5
Value flag · 2/X at 14.5 — our 10% vs market 4.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-4.9pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.3pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.8pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 27%
-8% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -2%
1.64/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.80
+6% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 73%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
25.2 Crosses 19.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
4W-1D-1L
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.13 xG 1.37
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
394 Passes 330
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2024 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 0-3 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
09.02.2024 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-0 HT 2-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
26.08.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-0 HT 1-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
15.07.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 0-0 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HAZ
18.03.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-3 HT 0-3 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
13.11.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 6-1 HT 1-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2-1
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
1.52 xG 1.13
43% Ball Possession 57%
19 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
278 Passes 389
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
35 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs RKC Waalwijk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen edged past RKC Waalwijk 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had NEC Nijmegen as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 43% of the ball to RKC Waalwijk's 57%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 1.52 to 1.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, NEC Nijmegen had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.67 for RKC Waalwijk.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs RKC Waalwijk?

NEC Nijmegen 2-1 RKC Waalwijk in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs RKC Waalwijk?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 48%, draw 28%, RKC Waalwijk 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC Nijmegen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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