RKC Waalwijk 0-3 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.46
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
41%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.6
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.34
6+ Goals
8%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.6 — our 32% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.66
1/2
7%
23.6
1/X
8%
13.75
X/1
13%
7.79
X/2
15%
4.43
X/X
11%
4.9
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.56
2/X
7%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
26%
+7.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
41%
Away Win
49%
-7.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.4pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 52%
+3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.32/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.10/1.88
+8% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -37%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 81%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.6 Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RKC Waalwijk
1W-1D-4L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.56 xG 2.29
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 6
341 Passes 379
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.02.2024 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-0 HT 2-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
26.08.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-0 HT 1-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
15.07.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 0-0 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HAZ
18.03.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-3 HT 0-3 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
13.11.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 6-1 HT 1-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
09.07.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-1 HT 2-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RKC Waalwijk
0-3
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
0.61 xG 1.51
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 10
286 Passes 452
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 30
15 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH RKC Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen swept aside RKC Waalwijk 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had NEC Nijmegen as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, RKC Waalwijk had 41% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 59%, shots finished 10-20, expected goals 0.61 to 1.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NEC Nijmegen led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for RKC Waalwijk and 2.50 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of RKC Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen?

RKC Waalwijk 0-3 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RKC Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated an NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split RKC Waalwijk 33%, draw 26%, NEC Nijmegen 41%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC Nijmegen), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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