PEC Zwolle 3-1 Fortuna Sittard — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 9 Nov 2024

PEC Zwolle
3-1 HT 0-1
Fortuna Sittard
📅09/11/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.33
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
28%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.78
Over 2.5
37%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.76
No
58%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.01
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
3.88
6+ Goals
7%
17.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 35% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.52
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
8%
13.35
X/1
14%
5.16
X/2
7%
5.73
X/X
14%
4.37
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
14%
4.08
2/X
10%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
39%
+0.9pp
32%
Draw
28%
+4.2pp
28%
Away Win
33%
-5.1pp
63%
Under 2.5
52%
+11.0pp
37%
Over 2.5
48%
-11.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.8pp
58%
BTTS No
47%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PEC Zwolle v Fortuna Sittard — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -2%
1.49/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/0.92
-3% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
318 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 75%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
22.4 Crosses 21.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5

PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PEC Zwolle
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.81 xG 1.44
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
390 Passes 252
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
21 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.03.2024 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 3-1 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
05.11.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
06.03.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-1 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
11.12.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-1 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
16.01.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-2 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
06.11.2020 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-2 HT 2-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL

PEC Zwolle 3-1 Fortuna Sittard — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PEC Zwolle
3-1
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
2.25 xG 2.97
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
376 Passes 229
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 29
20 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PEC Zwolle beat Fortuna Sittard 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 32% / 28%) promised a tight game; PEC Zwolle found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, PEC Zwolle had 59% of the ball to Fortuna Sittard's 41%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 2.25 to 2.97 — on chances, Fortuna Sittard could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortuna Sittard led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.33 for Fortuna Sittard.

What was the final score of PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?

PEC Zwolle 3-1 Fortuna Sittard in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?

Before kick-off our model rated a PEC Zwolle win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split PEC Zwolle 40%, draw 32%, Fortuna Sittard 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PEC Zwolle) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PEC Zwolle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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