Fortuna Sittard 3-1 PEC Zwolle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 16 Mar 2024

Fortuna Sittard
3-1 HT 1-0
PEC Zwolle
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✓
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.91
Over 2.5
55%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.76
No
45%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.48
2-3 Goals
34%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.43
6+ Goals
14%
12.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.43 — our 27% vs market 23.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.28
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.6
X/1
16%
4.04
X/2
9%
8.83
X/X
17%
5.12
2/1
8%
23.15
2/2
10%
6.77
2/X
4%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
54%
-8.4pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.9pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.7pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fortuna Sittard v PEC Zwolle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 25%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.82/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.75
+61% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 78%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
18.9 Crosses 14.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9

Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Sittard
2W-2D-2L
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.18 xG 1.17
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
264 Passes 394
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.11.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
06.03.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-1 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
11.12.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-1 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
16.01.2021 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-2 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
06.11.2020 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-2 HT 2-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
06.03.2020 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-1 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL

Fortuna Sittard 3-1 PEC Zwolle — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Sittard
3-1
AWAY PEC Zwolle
2.49 xG 0.28
43% Ball Possession 57%
22 Total Shots 5
12 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
260 Passes 374
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
45 Box Touches 6
32 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Sittard beat PEC Zwolle 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fortuna Sittard as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 43% of the ball to PEC Zwolle's 57%, shots finished 22-5, expected goals 2.49 to 0.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.00 for PEC Zwolle.

What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?

Fortuna Sittard 3-1 PEC Zwolle in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortuna Sittard win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 45%, draw 28%, PEC Zwolle 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortuna Sittard), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fortuna Sittard) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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