Excelsior 1-1 RKC Waalwijk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 16 Mar 2024

Excelsior
1-1 HT 1-0
RKC Waalwijk
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Excelsior vs RKC Waalwijk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.03
Over 2.5
60%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%
1.6
No
35%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
3.88
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
30%
3.17
6+ Goals
11%
10.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.17 — our 30% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
3.34
1/2
5%
28.5
1/X
9%
12.5
X/1
17%
5.4
X/2
12%
6.08
X/X
8%
4.88
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
25.5
2/2
18%
3.94
2/X
12%
12.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-4.0pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+1.4pp
40%
Under 2.5
45%
-4.9pp
60%
Over 2.5
55%
+4.9pp
65%
BTTS Yes
58%
+6.1pp
35%
BTTS No
42%
-6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Excelsior v RKC Waalwijk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 37%
-7% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -20%
1.53/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.48
-3% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -58% / +24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
323 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
15.9 Crosses 16.8
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.2

Excelsior vs RKC Waalwijk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
0W-4D-2L
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.54 xG 1.81
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 4
356 Passes 344
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.12.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-2 HT 1-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
04.02.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 0-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
04.09.2022 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 5-2 HT 1-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
22.05.2019 Excelsior Excelsior 1-1 HT 0-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
19.05.2019 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-1 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
18.05.2014 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-2 HT 2-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2

Excelsior 1-1 RKC Waalwijk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
1-1
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
1.45 xG 1.55
43% Ball Possession 57%
18 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
255 Passes 375
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 39
22 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs RKC Waalwijk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior and RKC Waalwijk couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, both teams to score (65%) landed while over 2.5 goals (60%) missed.

On the day, Excelsior had 43% of the ball to RKC Waalwijk's 57%, shots finished 18-16, expected goals 1.45 to 1.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, RKC Waalwijk led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Excelsior and 2.00 for RKC Waalwijk.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs RKC Waalwijk?

Excelsior 1-1 RKC Waalwijk in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs RKC Waalwijk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 36%, draw 29%, RKC Waalwijk 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Excelsior), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Excelsior) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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