Vitesse 1-1 Almere City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 16 Mar 2024

Vitesse
1-1 HT 0-1
Almere City
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Vitesse vs Almere City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.74
Over 2.5
55%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.81
No
44%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.91
2-3 Goals
33%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
4.02
6+ Goals
14%
18.65
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.02 — our 27% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.09
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
13.1
X/1
18%
4.74
X/2
13%
6.62
X/X
10%
4.18
2/1
5%
28.0
2/2
9%
4.96
2/X
6%
13.4
Value flag · 1/X at 13.1 — our 10% vs market 4.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
43%
+2.7pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.3pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
54%
-8.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
46%
+8.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+5.1pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitesse v Almere City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitesse EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Almere City EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
1.46/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.31
-19% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +112%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
284 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 77%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
21.2 Crosses 14.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.3

Vitesse vs Almere City Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitesse
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Almere City
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 5.00
0.36 xG 1.87
56% Ball Possession 44%
7 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
261 Passes 182
66% Pass Accuracy 60%
20 Box Touches 37
9 Crosses 25
The Meetings
17.12.2023 Almere City Almere City 5-0 HT 2-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOL

Vitesse 1-1 Almere City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitesse
1-1
AWAY Almere City
1.36 xG 0.49
65% Ball Possession 35%
22 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
375 Passes 134
74% Pass Accuracy 49%
33 Box Touches 24
24 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vitesse vs Almere City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitesse and Almere City couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Vitesse at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Vitesse had 65% of the ball to Almere City's 35%, shots finished 22-8, expected goals 1.36 to 0.49.

What was the final score of Vitesse vs Almere City?

Vitesse 1-1 Almere City in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitesse vs Almere City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitesse win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Vitesse 46%, draw 26%, Almere City 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Vitesse), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vitesse) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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