Ghazl El Mehalla 1-0 Smouha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
30%
2.77
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.41
Over 2.5
36%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.27
No
60%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
1.93
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
16%
6.34
6+ Goals
6%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
41%
-1.4pp
30%
Draw
33%
-2.4pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.8pp
64%
Under 2.5
67%
-3.2pp
36%
Over 2.5
33%
+3.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
40%
-0.4pp
60%
BTTS No
60%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ghazl El Mehalla EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Smouha EU Bookmakers 30%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
0.93/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.04
-16% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
304 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 67%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
23.3 Crosses 14.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ghazl El Mehalla
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Smouha
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.20 xG 1.26
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
231 Passes 230
69% Pass Accuracy 71%
17 Box Touches 18
28 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.12.2024 Smouha Smouha 2-4 HT 1-1 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla MSR
02.05.2023 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla 0-2 HT 0-1 Smouha Smouha MSR
30.12.2022 Smouha Smouha 0-0 HT 0-0 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla MSR
31.07.2022 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla 1-0 HT 0-0 Smouha Smouha MSR
27.02.2022 Smouha Smouha 2-0 HT 0-0 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla MSR
06.04.2021 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla 1-1 HT 0-1 Smouha Smouha MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ghazl El Mehalla
1-0
AWAY Smouha
0.20 xG 0.49
44% Ball Possession 56%
4 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
261 Passes 342
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
9 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ghazl El Mehalla vs Smouha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ghazl El Mehalla edged past Smouha 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Ghazl El Mehalla found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ghazl El Mehalla had 44% of the ball to Smouha's 56%, shots finished 4-12, expected goals 0.20 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ghazl El Mehalla and 1.17 for Smouha.

What was the final score of Ghazl El Mehalla vs Smouha?

Ghazl El Mehalla 1-0 Smouha in the Egypt - Premier League on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ghazl El Mehalla vs Smouha?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ghazl El Mehalla win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Ghazl El Mehalla 39%, draw 30%, Smouha 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ghazl El Mehalla), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ghazl El Mehalla) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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