Smouha 2-4 Ghazl El Mehalla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.59
Over 2.5
43%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.35
2-3 Goals
37%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
4.54
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
5%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-5.2pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.3pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.1pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smouha EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Ghazl El Mehalla EU Bookmakers 24%
+10% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.63/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/1.14
+73% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / +29%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 231 · 69%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
17.4 Crosses 14.8
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smouha
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Ghazl El Mehalla
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.22 xG 0.87
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
212 Passes 234
69% Pass Accuracy 69%
19 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.05.2023 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla 0-2 HT 0-1 Smouha Smouha MSR
30.12.2022 Smouha Smouha 0-0 HT 0-0 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla MSR
31.07.2022 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla 1-0 HT 0-0 Smouha Smouha MSR
27.02.2022 Smouha Smouha 2-0 HT 0-0 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla MSR
06.04.2021 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla 1-1 HT 0-1 Smouha Smouha MSR
14.12.2020 Smouha Smouha 1-1 HT 0-0 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Smouha
2-4
AWAY Ghazl El Mehalla
1.95 xG 3.26
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
348 Passes 131
79% Pass Accuracy 58%
23 Box Touches 17
31 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Smouha vs Ghazl El Mehalla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ghazl El Mehalla got the better of Smouha 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Smouha at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Smouha had 65% of the ball to Ghazl El Mehalla's 35%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.95 to 3.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Smouha had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Smouha and 0.50 for Ghazl El Mehalla.

What was the final score of Smouha vs Ghazl El Mehalla?

Smouha 2-4 Ghazl El Mehalla in the Egypt - Premier League on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smouha vs Ghazl El Mehalla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Smouha win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Smouha 46%, draw 29%, Ghazl El Mehalla 25%. The final score 2-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Smouha) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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