Young Boys 0-1 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.38
Over 2.5
56%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.49
No
42%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.18
2-3 Goals
38%
1.97
4-5 Goals
26%
2.72
6+ Goals
14%
6.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.62
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
30.5
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
11%
4.9
X/2
13%
7.44
X/X
9%
5.78
2/1
8%
21.35
2/2
12%
4.68
2/X
9%
12.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 30.5 — our 7% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-4.0pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+2.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
63%
-5.5pp
42%
BTTS No
37%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Young Boys EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 32%
+10% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +14%
1.57/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.38
+28% / +69% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 76%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
26.2 Crosses 16.4
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Young Boys
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Lugano
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.33 xG 1.31
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
347 Passes 302
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.02.2024 Lugano Lugano 3-3 HT 1-1 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
29.10.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 0-0 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
24.09.2023 Young Boys Young Boys 4-1 HT 3-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
04.06.2023 Young Boys Young Boys 3-2 HT 2-0 Lugano Lugano İSVK
25.05.2023 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 0-0 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
18.02.2023 Young Boys Young Boys 1-1 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Young Boys
0-1
AWAY Lugano
1.22 xG 0.77
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 0
352 Passes 252
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 5
24 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Young Boys vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano nicked a narrow win over Young Boys 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Young Boys at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Young Boys had 57% of the ball to Lugano's 43%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 1.22 to 0.77 — the balance of chances actually favoured Young Boys.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Young Boys had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Young Boys and 1.67 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Young Boys vs Lugano?

Young Boys 0-1 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Young Boys vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Young Boys win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Young Boys 43%, draw 25%, Lugano 32%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Young Boys) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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