Imbabura 4-2 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
+0.2pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.3pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.5pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Imbabura EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +47%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
321 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
Crosses 17.3
Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Imbabura
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Libertad
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
30.10.2022 Libertad Libertad 2-0 HT 1-0 Imbabura Imbabura EKV2
30.07.2022 Imbabura Imbabura 2-1 HT 2-0 Libertad Libertad EKV2
26.05.2022 Imbabura Imbabura 1-2 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV2
01.04.2022 Libertad Libertad 3-5 HT 0-1 Imbabura Imbabura EKV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Imbabura
4-2
AWAY Libertad
1.90 xG 1.19
59% Ball Possession 41%
23 Total Shots 14
12 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
290 Passes 171
81% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 16
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Imbabura vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Imbabura saw off Libertad 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Imbabura as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Imbabura had 59% of the ball to Libertad's 41%, shots finished 23-14, expected goals 1.90 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Imbabura and 2.00 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Imbabura vs Libertad?

Imbabura 4-2 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Imbabura vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Imbabura win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Imbabura 43%, draw 26%, Libertad 30%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Imbabura) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Imbabura) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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