FC Flora Tallinn 0-1 Parnu JK Vaprus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.34
Draw
25%
4.62
Away
22%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.33
Over 2.5
51%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
70%
-16.7pp
25%
Draw
18%
+6.3pp
22%
Away Win
12%
+10.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
39%
+9.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
61%
-9.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Flora Tallinn EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 15%
-1% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +40%
2.65/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/2.26
+13% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +4%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
444 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Flora Tallinn
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
14.04.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-3 HT 0-3 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
18.02.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-3 HT 0-1 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn HAZ
01.10.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
28.07.2023 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 1-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
10.06.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-5 HT 1-1 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
16.04.2023 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 4-0 HT 4-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Flora Tallinn
0-1
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Flora Tallinn vs Parnu JK Vaprus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parnu JK Vaprus squeezed past FC Flora Tallinn 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was FC Flora Tallinn at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, FC Flora Tallinn had 62% of the ball to Parnu JK Vaprus's 38%, shots finished 19-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Flora Tallinn had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for FC Flora Tallinn and 0.50 for Parnu JK Vaprus.

What was the final score of FC Flora Tallinn vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

FC Flora Tallinn 0-1 Parnu JK Vaprus in the Estonia - Premium League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Flora Tallinn vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Flora Tallinn win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split FC Flora Tallinn 53%, draw 25%, Parnu JK Vaprus 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (FC Flora Tallinn), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Flora Tallinn) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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