Parnu JK Vaprus 1-3 FC Flora Tallinn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.4
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
52%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
24%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
15%
+8.7pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.0pp
52%
Away Win
64%
-11.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.8pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn EU Bookmakers 69%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.44/1.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/0.60
+43% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +60%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
303 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 400 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
0W-1D-5L
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.02.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-3 HT 0-1 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn HAZ
01.10.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
28.07.2023 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 1-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
10.06.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-5 HT 1-1 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
16.04.2023 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 4-0 HT 4-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
09.10.2022 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-7 HT 0-3 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
1-3
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn
47% Ball Possession 53%
3 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Flora Tallinn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Flora Tallinn beat Parnu JK Vaprus 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

As we said in the preview, our model had FC Flora Tallinn as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Parnu JK Vaprus had 47% of the ball to FC Flora Tallinn's 53%, shots finished 3-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Flora Tallinn led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Parnu JK Vaprus and 3.50 for FC Flora Tallinn.

What was the final score of Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Flora Tallinn?

Parnu JK Vaprus 1-3 FC Flora Tallinn in the Estonia - Premium League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Flora Tallinn?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Flora Tallinn win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Parnu JK Vaprus 24%, draw 24%, FC Flora Tallinn 52%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Flora Tallinn), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Flora Tallinn) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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