Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 Royal AM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Premier League, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.3
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
15%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
2.0
Over 2.5
41%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.19
No
64%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.72
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
19%
3.26
6+ Goals
8%
11.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 32% vs market 21.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
72%
-9.0pp
22%
Draw
17%
+4.9pp
15%
Away Win
10%
+4.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
46%
+12.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
54%
-12.5pp
36%
BTTS Yes
42%
-6.0pp
64%
BTTS No
58%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Royal AM EU Bookmakers 14%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -12%
1.50/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.69
+19% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -27%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
404 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 72%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
15.1 Crosses 10.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
5W-0D-0L
AWAY Royal AM
3.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.49 xG 1.24
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
367 Passes 259
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
14.03.2023 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 5-1 HT 3-0 Royal AM Royal AM GAFPSL
29.10.2022 Royal AM Royal AM 0-3 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
23.05.2022 Royal AM Royal AM 2-3 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
30.04.2022 Royal AM Royal AM 1-2 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAF8K
08.12.2021 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 3-2 HT 1-0 Royal AM Royal AM GAFPSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
1-0
AWAY Royal AM
0.94 xG 0.15
73% Ball Possession 27%
12 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
522 Passes 136
87% Pass Accuracy 64%
27 Box Touches 14
8 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Mamelodi Sundowns vs Royal AM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns squeezed past Royal AM 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Mamelodi Sundowns as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (64%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Mamelodi Sundowns had 73% of the ball to Royal AM's 27%, shots finished 12-4, expected goals 0.94 to 0.15.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.20 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 1.20 for Royal AM.

What was the final score of Mamelodi Sundowns vs Royal AM?

Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 Royal AM in the South Afrika - Premier League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Royal AM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Mamelodi Sundowns 63%, draw 22%, Royal AM 15%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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