Incheon United 1-2 FC Seoul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.62
Over 2.5
40%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.95
No
59%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.58
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.57
6+ Goals
7%
24.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.58 — our 35% vs market 32.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.01
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.6
X/1
12%
4.5
X/2
10%
6.86
X/X
11%
3.91
2/1
13%
29.5
2/2
12%
5.46
2/X
7%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
+0.2pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.9pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
58%
+2.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
42%
-2.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.1pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Incheon United EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Seoul EU Bookmakers 30%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -1%
1.11/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.35
-21% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
330 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 75%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
20.6 Crosses 14.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Incheon United
2W-3D-1L
AWAY FC Seoul
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.60 xG 0.81
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
285 Passes 522
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 18
10 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
10.03.2024 FC Seoul FC Seoul 0-0 HT 0-0 Incheon United Incheon United GKOK
22.07.2023 FC Seoul FC Seoul 0-1 HT 0-1 Incheon United Incheon United GKOR
07.06.2023 Incheon United Incheon United 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Seoul FC Seoul GKOK
25.02.2023 FC Seoul FC Seoul 2-1 HT 1-0 Incheon United Incheon United GKOK
27.08.2022 Incheon United Incheon United 2-0 HT 1-0 FC Seoul FC Seoul GKOK
25.06.2022 FC Seoul FC Seoul 1-1 HT 1-0 Incheon United Incheon United GKOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Incheon United
1-2
AWAY FC Seoul
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
381 Passes 480
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Incheon United vs FC Seoul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Seoul nicked a narrow win over Incheon United 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Incheon United at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Incheon United had 46% of the ball to FC Seoul's 54%, shots finished 12-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Incheon United had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Incheon United and 0.67 for FC Seoul.

What was the final score of Incheon United vs FC Seoul?

Incheon United 1-2 FC Seoul in the South Kore - K League Classic on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Incheon United vs FC Seoul?

Before kick-off our model rated a Incheon United win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Incheon United 45%, draw 27%, FC Seoul 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Incheon United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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