Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 Osijek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.37
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
20%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.29
Over 2.5
53%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.77
2-3 Goals
37%
1.92
4-5 Goals
24%
2.82
6+ Goals
14%
7.74
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
69%
-11.2pp
22%
Draw
19%
+3.2pp
20%
Away Win
12%
+8.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.9pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Osijek EU Bookmakers 15%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
1.79/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.61
+13% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +6%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
400 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 77%
33.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
22.2 Crosses 13.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Osijek
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.32 xG 0.89
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
415 Passes 233
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
30 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
03.03.2024 Osijek Osijek 1-1 HT 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
25.11.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
03.09.2023 Osijek Osijek 2-3 HT 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
07.05.2023 Osijek Osijek 0-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
05.03.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 1-1 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
29.10.2022 Osijek Osijek 1-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
1-0
AWAY Osijek
0.99 xG 0.26
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 8
286 Passes 263
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 11
11 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dinamo Zagreb vs Osijek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Zagreb squeezed past Osijek 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Dinamo Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Dinamo Zagreb had 51% of the ball to Osijek's 49%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 0.99 to 0.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.00 for Osijek.

What was the final score of Dinamo Zagreb vs Osijek?

Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 Osijek in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Zagreb vs Osijek?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Zagreb 58%, draw 22%, Osijek 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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