NK Varazdin 3-1 Rijeka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 11 May 2024

NK Varazdin
3-1 HT 2-1
Rijeka
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Croatia - 1. HNL – 2023/2024

NK Varazdin vs Rijeka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.87
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
44%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.86
Over 2.5
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.25
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.62
6+ Goals
9%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 28% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
10%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
22%
+5.8pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.6pp
44%
Away Win
53%
-9.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.1pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NK Varazdin v Rijeka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Rijeka EU Bookmakers 57%
+4% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.47/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/0.84
+68% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +0%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
221 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 77%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
16.5 Crosses 18.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

NK Varazdin vs Rijeka Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Rijeka
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.85 xG 1.58
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
298 Passes 324
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.03.2024 Rijeka Rijeka 2-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
25.11.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-2 HT 0-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
03.09.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 2-2 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
14.05.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-0 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
12.03.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 3-1 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
06.11.2022 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-3 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR

NK Varazdin 3-1 Rijeka — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
3-1
AWAY Rijeka
1.29 xG 0.83
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
242 Passes 385
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 19
7 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Rijeka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin saw off Rijeka 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match lean was Rijeka at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 41% of the ball to Rijeka's 59%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 1.29 to 0.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rijeka led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for NK Varazdin and 2.00 for Rijeka.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Rijeka?

NK Varazdin 3-1 Rijeka in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Rijeka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 28%, draw 28%, Rijeka 44%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rijeka) ✗ BTTS No
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