Arsenal U21 2-3 Chelsea U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League 2 (League 1), 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
3.14
Over 2.5
61%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
34%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
7%
2/1
14%
2/2
22%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+0.3pp
20%
Draw
21%
-1.0pp
38%
Away Win
38%
+0.7pp
39%
Under 2.5
28%
+10.8pp
61%
Over 2.5
72%
-10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal U21 EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea U21 EU Bookmakers 42%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +45% / +45%
2.24/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.06/1.37
-40% / +71% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% /
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
327 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 459 · 86%
37.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
12.0 Crosses 12.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal U21
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Chelsea U21
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.48 xG 2.03
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 6
388 Passes 366
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
36 Box Touches 21
8 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.03.2024 Chelsea U21 Chelsea U21 2-4 HT 1-1 Arsenal U21 Arsenal U21 INGPL2-1
11.01.2022 Arsenal U21 Arsenal U21 4-1 HT 2-1 Chelsea U21 Chelsea U21 İNTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal U21
2-3
AWAY Chelsea U21
1.11 xG 2.35
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 25
7 Shots on Target 12
4 Corners 6
382 Passes 353
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
9 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arsenal U21 vs Chelsea U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea U21 nicked a narrow win over Arsenal U21 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 42% / 20% / 38% — and on the day Chelsea U21 made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

On the day, Arsenal U21 had 52% of the ball to Chelsea U21's 48%, shots finished 12-25, expected goals 1.11 to 2.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Chelsea U21's control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Arsenal U21 had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 4.00 goals for Arsenal U21 and 1.50 for Chelsea U21.

What was the final score of Arsenal U21 vs Chelsea U21?

Arsenal U21 2-3 Chelsea U21 in the England - Premier League 2 (League 1) on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal U21 vs Chelsea U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Arsenal U21 42%, draw 20%, Chelsea U21 38%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Arsenal U21) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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