Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Stal Mielec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 11 May 2024

Gornik Zabrze
1-1 HT 0-0
Stal Mielec
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2023/2024

Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.85
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.19
6+ Goals
10%
10.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 27% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.98
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.8
X/1
21%
3.82
X/2
6%
10.85
X/X
10%
5.69
2/1
6%
22.3
2/2
13%
8.35
2/X
7%
16.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
60%
-8.9pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.8pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+5.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.8pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gornik Zabrze v Stal Mielec — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 21%
-18% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -11%
1.91/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.40
-4% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
395 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 75%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
18.8 Crosses 14.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gornik Zabrze
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Stal Mielec
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.60 xG 1.19
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
401 Passes 235
80% Pass Accuracy 69%
30 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-1 HT 1-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
26.02.2023 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-1 HT 0-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
13.08.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-3 HT 1-2 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
05.02.2022 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 1-2 HT 1-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
07.08.2021 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-0 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
15.02.2021 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 2-1 HT 0-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL

Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Stal Mielec — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gornik Zabrze
1-1
AWAY Stal Mielec
1.26 xG 0.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
440 Passes 384
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 7
21 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Gornik Zabrze at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Gornik Zabrze had 52% of the ball to Stal Mielec's 48%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.26 to 0.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gornik Zabrze had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.17 for Stal Mielec.

What was the final score of Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?

Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Stal Mielec in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gornik Zabrze win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Gornik Zabrze 51%, draw 25%, Stal Mielec 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Gornik Zabrze), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gornik Zabrze) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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