Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-0 Korona Kielce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 11 May 2024

Jagiellonia Bialystok
3-0 HT 2-0
Korona Kielce
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2023/2024

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Korona Kielce Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.59
Over 2.5
52%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.5
No
47%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.83
2-3 Goals
40%
2.05
4-5 Goals
25%
2.6
6+ Goals
12%
5.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.96
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.75
X/1
10%
4.18
X/2
4%
10.7
X/X
11%
6.77
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
19.35
2/2
16%
7.04
2/X
8%
15.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.35 — our 12% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
59%
-7.9pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.1pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
35%
+13.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
65%
-13.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
62%
-9.7pp
47%
BTTS No
38%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Jagiellonia Bialystok v Korona Kielce — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 23%
-14% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -22%
2.28/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.34
+16% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -11%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
370 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 73%
33.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
24.6 Crosses 20.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Korona Kielce Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Korona Kielce
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.33 xG 1.57
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
381 Passes 257
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.02.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 HT 0-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POLK
11.11.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 2-2 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
15.04.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 2-1 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
02.10.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-1 HT 1-1 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
16.02.2020 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 0-0 HT 0-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
16.03.2019 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-3 HT 0-2 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL

Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-0 Korona Kielce — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
3-0
AWAY Korona Kielce
2.34 xG 0.88
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
420 Passes 366
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 19
9 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Korona Kielce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok cruised past Korona Kielce 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Jagiellonia Bialystok as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 53% of the ball to Korona Kielce's 47%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 2.34 to 0.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 1.50 for Korona Kielce.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Korona Kielce?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-0 Korona Kielce in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Korona Kielce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 51%, draw 25%, Korona Kielce 24%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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