Rakow Czestochowa 2-1 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 11 May 2024

Rakow Czestochowa
2-1 HT 2-0
Pogon Szczecin
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2023/2024

Rakow Czestochowa vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.29
Over 2.5
47%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.61
No
54%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.92
4-5 Goals
22%
2.82
6+ Goals
10%
7.73
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.78 — our 28% vs market 16.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.02
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.3
X/1
19%
4.13
X/2
8%
10.65
X/X
12%
5.99
2/1
7%
20.8
2/2
9%
7.44
2/X
7%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-8.3pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.2pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+5.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
40%
+13.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
60%
-13.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.5pp
54%
BTTS No
42%
+11.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rakow Czestochowa v Pogon Szczecin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 22%
+4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +17%
1.99/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.51
+4% / +65% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
350 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 73%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
19.3 Crosses 13.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Rakow Czestochowa vs Pogon Szczecin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.86 xG 1.17
44% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
270 Passes 396
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-1 HT 0-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
05.03.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-2 HT 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
09.11.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-1 HT 0-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POLK
31.08.2022 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 1-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
20.04.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-2 HT 1-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
07.11.2021 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 0-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL

Rakow Czestochowa 2-1 Pogon Szczecin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
2-1
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
2.53 xG 1.05
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
253 Passes 386
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Rakow Czestochowa vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rakow Czestochowa edged past Pogon Szczecin 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Rakow Czestochowa as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Rakow Czestochowa had 41% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 59%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 2.53 to 1.05 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Rakow Czestochowa's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Rakow Czestochowa and 0.33 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Rakow Czestochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?

Rakow Czestochowa 2-1 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rakow Czestochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Rakow Czestochowa 50%, draw 26%, Pogon Szczecin 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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