Vilaverdense 2-1 Penafiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 11 May 2024

Vilaverdense
2-1 HT 0-1
Penafiel
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Vilaverdense vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
33%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.78
Over 2.5
40%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.01
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
3.88
6+ Goals
10%
17.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 30% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+1.8pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.8pp
34%
Away Win
39%
-5.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.8pp
40%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vilaverdense v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vilaverdense EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Penafiel EU Bookmakers 43%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +4%
1.78/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.21
+4% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
292 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
19.2 Crosses 19.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.4

Vilaverdense vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vilaverdense
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Penafiel
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.86 xG 1.45
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 2
230 Passes 255
70% Pass Accuracy 75%
37 Crosses 15
5 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.01.2024 Penafiel Penafiel 2-1 HT 2-0 Vilaverdense Vilaverdense POR2

Vilaverdense 2-1 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vilaverdense
2-1
AWAY Penafiel
1.08 xG 1.30
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
155 Passes 234
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
13 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vilaverdense vs Penafiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vilaverdense nicked a narrow win over Penafiel 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 31% / 34%) promised a tight game; Vilaverdense found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vilaverdense had 53% of the ball to Penafiel's 47%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.08 to 1.30.

What was the final score of Vilaverdense vs Penafiel?

Vilaverdense 2-1 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vilaverdense vs Penafiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vilaverdense win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Vilaverdense 36%, draw 31%, Penafiel 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vilaverdense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vilaverdense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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