Penafiel 2-1 Vilaverdense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.61
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.8
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
3.84
6+ Goals
8%
17.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-7.0pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.7pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.8pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Vilaverdense EU Bookmakers 21%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.20/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/2.31
+6% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -64% / -14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.2 Crosses 17.7
3.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
2-1
AWAY Vilaverdense
1.45 xG 0.86
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 9
255 Passes 230
75% Pass Accuracy 70%
15 Crosses 37
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Vilaverdense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel nicked a narrow win over Vilaverdense 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Penafiel as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Penafiel had 50% of the ball to Vilaverdense's 50%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.45 to 0.86.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Vilaverdense?

Penafiel 2-1 Vilaverdense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Vilaverdense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 51%, draw 28%, Vilaverdense 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penafiel) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Penafiel) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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