Santa Clara 0-1 Mafra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.64
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
27%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.65
2-3 Goals
38%
1.71
4-5 Goals
18%
4.07
6+ Goals
11%
20.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.65 — our 33% vs market 30.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
57%
-12.9pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.3pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+9.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.1pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santa Clara EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Mafra EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
0.85/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.25
+3% / +110% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +3%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.3 Crosses 16.7
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santa Clara
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Mafra
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
30.09.2015 Mafra Mafra 0-0 HT 0-0 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santa Clara
0-1
AWAY Mafra
0.99 xG 0.37
51% Ball Possession 49%
20 Total Shots 3
10 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 1
344 Passes 334
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Crosses 4
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Santa Clara vs Mafra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mafra nicked a narrow win over Santa Clara 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Santa Clara at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Santa Clara had 51% of the ball to Mafra's 49%, shots finished 20-3, expected goals 0.99 to 0.37 — on chances, Santa Clara could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Santa Clara vs Mafra?

Santa Clara 0-1 Mafra in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santa Clara vs Mafra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santa Clara win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Santa Clara 44%, draw 28%, Mafra 27%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Santa Clara) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Santa Clara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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