Nacional 1-1 Tondela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.89
Draw
32%
3.45
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.75
No
56%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.21
2-3 Goals
35%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.41
6+ Goals
10%
13.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.21 — our 35% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-7.8pp
32%
Draw
26%
+6.2pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.8pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Tondela EU Bookmakers 29%
+12% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -5%
1.77/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.11
+36% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
318 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
26.3 Crosses 17.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Tondela
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.40 xG 1.52
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
317 Passes 286
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.01.2023 Tondela Tondela 1-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR2
09.11.2022 Nacional Nacional 1-0 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POK
06.08.2022 Nacional Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Tondela Tondela POR2
22.04.2021 Tondela Tondela 2-1 HT 1-1 Nacional Nacional POR
27.12.2020 Nacional Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POR
02.03.2019 Nacional Nacional 3-2 HT 1-1 Tondela Tondela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional
1-1
AWAY Tondela
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nacional vs Tondela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional and Tondela shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Nacional at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Nacional had 47% of the ball to Tondela's 53%, shots finished 11-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Nacional and 1.00 for Tondela.

What was the final score of Nacional vs Tondela?

Nacional 1-1 Tondela in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional vs Tondela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Nacional 41%, draw 32%, Tondela 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Nacional), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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