Persebaya Surabaya 1-1 Semen Padang — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Indonesia League 1, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.53
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
18%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
25%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
61%
-5.0pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.4pp
18%
Away Win
17%
+0.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Persebaya Surabaya EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Semen Padang EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.64/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.47
-5% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / +11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
340 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Persebaya Surabaya
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Semen Padang
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
15.12.2024 Semen Padang Semen Padang 0-0 HT 0-0 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
28.11.2019 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 1-1 HT 1-1 Semen Padang Semen Padang ENDL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Persebaya Surabaya
1-1
AWAY Semen Padang
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Persebaya Surabaya vs Semen Padang
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Persebaya Surabaya and Semen Padang couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Persebaya Surabaya at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Persebaya Surabaya had 54% of the ball to Semen Padang's 46%, shots finished 12-7.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Persebaya Surabaya and 0.50 for Semen Padang.

What was the final score of Persebaya Surabaya vs Semen Padang?

Persebaya Surabaya 1-1 Semen Padang in the Indonesia League 1 on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Persebaya Surabaya vs Semen Padang?

Before kick-off our model rated a Persebaya Surabaya win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Persebaya Surabaya 56%, draw 26%, Semen Padang 18%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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