Sham Shui Po 2-1 Tuen Mun SA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒08:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.43
Draw
18%
4.62
Away
28%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
Over 2.5
62%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.41
No
48%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
65%
-11.8pp
18%
Draw
18%
+0.2pp
28%
Away Win
16%
+11.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
67%
-14.9pp
48%
BTTS No
33%
+14.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sham Shui Po EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Tuen Mun SA EU Bookmakers 20%
-37% / -37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -24%
2.42/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/4.00
+6% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -46%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
405 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sham Shui Po
2-1
AWAY Tuen Mun SA
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 0
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sham Shui Po vs Tuen Mun SA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sham Shui Po nicked a narrow win over Tuen Mun SA 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sham Shui Po as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sham Shui Po had 50% of the ball to Tuen Mun SA's 50%, shots finished 16-9.

What was the final score of Sham Shui Po vs Tuen Mun SA?

Sham Shui Po 2-1 Tuen Mun SA in the Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sham Shui Po vs Tuen Mun SA?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sham Shui Po win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Sham Shui Po 54%, draw 18%, Tuen Mun SA 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sham Shui Po), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sham Shui Po) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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