South China 2-3 Yuen Long — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
34%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
Over 2.5
59%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.43
No
39%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
12%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-8.0pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.7pp
34%
Away Win
28%
+5.4pp
61%
BTTS Yes
66%
-4.7pp
39%
BTTS No
34%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South China EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Yuen Long EU Bookmakers 32%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
2.41/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.10
+48% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +58%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South China
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Yuen Long
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2024 Yuen Long Yuen Long 2-1 South China South China HK2
12.05.2024 South China South China 5-2 HT 3-0 Yuen Long Yuen Long HK2
22.10.2023 Yuen Long Yuen Long 0-0 HT 0-0 South China South China HK2
12.02.2023 South China South China 1-1 HT 0-0 Yuen Long Yuen Long HK2
28.11.2021 South China South China 1-1 HT 0-1 Yuen Long Yuen Long HK2
02.05.2015 Yuen Long Yuen Long 1-0 HT 0-0 South China South China HK1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME South China
2-3
AWAY Yuen Long
42% Ball Possession 58%
17 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH South China vs Yuen Long
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Yuen Long nicked a narrow win over South China 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was South China at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, South China had 42% of the ball to Yuen Long's 58%, shots finished 17-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Yuen Long led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for South China and 1.17 for Yuen Long.

What was the final score of South China vs Yuen Long?

South China 2-3 Yuen Long in the Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South China vs Yuen Long?

Before kick-off our model rated a South China win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split South China 41%, draw 26%, Yuen Long 34%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (South China) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (South China) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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