Shimizu S-Pulse 4-2 Matsumoto Yamaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - İmparatorluk Cup, 11 Jun 2025

📅11/06/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.22
Draw
20%
5.71
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.13
No
52%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
77%
-14.1pp
20%
Draw
14%
+5.5pp
17%
Away Win
8%
+8.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
43%
+5.3pp
52%
BTTS No
57%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 11%
-62% / -62% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.37/2.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/3.53
-43% / -57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -37%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
444 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 198 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.57 xG 1.44
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
330 Passes 369
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
10.08.2019 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 1-0 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP
01.06.2019 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
24.04.2019 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 2-2 HT 2-2 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JLK
06.03.2019 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 HT 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JLK
03.10.2015 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 HT 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
22.03.2015 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 0-1 HT 0-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
4-2
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Shimizu S-Pulse vs Matsumoto Yamaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shimizu S-Pulse saw off Matsumoto Yamaga 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Shimizu S-Pulse as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Shimizu S-Pulse had 51% of the ball to Matsumoto Yamaga's 49%, shots finished 16-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Matsumoto Yamaga led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Shimizu S-Pulse and 1.17 for Matsumoto Yamaga.

What was the final score of Shimizu S-Pulse vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Shimizu S-Pulse 4-2 Matsumoto Yamaga in the Japan - İmparatorluk Cup on 11/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shimizu S-Pulse win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Shimizu S-Pulse 63%, draw 20%, Matsumoto Yamaga 17%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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