Elfsborg 3-0 Pafos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 11 Jul 2024

📅11/07/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-7.8pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.3pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+7.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.9pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elfsborg EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Pafos EU Bookmakers 21%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+63% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
369 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elfsborg
3-0
AWAY Pafos
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Elfsborg vs Pafos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elfsborg swept aside Pafos 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Elfsborg as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Elfsborg had 42% of the ball to Pafos's 58%, shots finished 13-5.

What was the final score of Elfsborg vs Pafos?

Elfsborg 3-0 Pafos in the UEFA Europa League on 11/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elfsborg vs Pafos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elfsborg win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Elfsborg 50%, draw 24%, Pafos 25%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Elfsborg) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Elfsborg) ✗ BTTS Yes
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