Atletico Paranaense 1-3 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 11 Jul 2024

📅11/07/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.94
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
3.97
6+ Goals
10%
18.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 32% vs market 28.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
20%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.7pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.3pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.8pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 33%
+6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.51/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.34
-3% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 79%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
22.7 Crosses 17.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Bahia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.24 xG 1.45
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
333 Passes 361
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.11.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
17.07.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-0 HT 2-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
13.07.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BRK
23.06.2022 Bahia Bahia 1-2 HT 1-2 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BRK
10.10.2021 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 0-2 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
25.06.2021 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1-3
AWAY Bahia
1.94 xG 1.30
52% Ball Possession 48%
22 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 2
401 Passes 380
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
33 Box Touches 12
32 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia saw off Atletico Paranaense 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Paranaense at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 52% of the ball to Bahia's 48%, shots finished 22-7, expected goals 1.94 to 1.30 — the balance of chances actually favoured Atletico Paranaense.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.17 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?

Atletico Paranaense 1-3 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 11/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 43%, draw 29%, Bahia 28%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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