Naestved 2-1 FC Helsingor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 2nd Division, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
34%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.62
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.33
6+ Goals
10%
12.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.62 — our 27% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+1.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.1pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naestved EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Helsingor EU Bookmakers 36%
+45% / +45% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +60% / +60%
3.42/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
+150% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% /
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
301 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naestved
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FC Helsingor
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.81 xG 1.61
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
356 Passes 327
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
31 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.06.2024 Naestved Naestved 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Helsingor FC Helsingor DAN1
31.03.2024 FC Helsingor FC Helsingor 1-3 HT 1-1 Naestved Naestved DAN1
05.12.2023 Naestved Naestved 2-2 HT 0-1 FC Helsingor FC Helsingor DAN1
23.07.2023 FC Helsingor FC Helsingor 2-1 HT 2-0 Naestved Naestved DAN1
07.05.2023 Naestved Naestved 2-1 HT 1-1 FC Helsingor FC Helsingor DAN1
25.04.2023 FC Helsingor FC Helsingor 4-2 HT 1-0 Naestved Naestved DAN1
POST-MATCH Naestved vs FC Helsingor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naestved squeezed past FC Helsingor 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Naestved found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Naestved had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Naestved and 1.67 for FC Helsingor.

What was the final score of Naestved vs FC Helsingor?

Naestved 2-1 FC Helsingor in the Denmark - 2nd Division on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naestved vs FC Helsingor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Naestved win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Naestved 38%, draw 28%, FC Helsingor 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Naestved), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Naestved) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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