El Nacional vs Macara Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
El Nacional v Macara — Team-Based Signals
El Nacional vs Macara Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-1
Macara
EKV1
1-0
HT 1-0
El Nacional
EKV1
0-1
HT 0-1
El Nacional
EKV1
1-2
HT 1-1
Macara
EKV1
El Nacional 1-3 Macara — Actual Match Statistics
Macara saw off El Nacional 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.
Our pre-match lean was El Nacional at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, El Nacional had 53% of the ball to Macara's 47%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 1.07 to 1.44.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Macara led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for El Nacional and 1.00 for Macara.
What was the final score of El Nacional vs Macara?
El Nacional 1-3 Macara in the Ecuador - Premier on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Macara?
Before kick-off our model rated a El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 46%, draw 27%, Macara 27%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.