Valmiera / BSS 4-1 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.3
Draw
21%
4.95
Away
17%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
12%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
72%
-10.2pp
21%
Draw
17%
+4.5pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+5.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.7pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valmiera / BSS EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 14%
-13% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +5%
2.12/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/2.04
-2% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +15%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
488 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 74%
34.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
30.5 Crosses 12.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valmiera / BSS
2W-2D-2L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.86 xG 0.88
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
380 Passes 158
78% Pass Accuracy 61%
32 Box Touches 19
27 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.06.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-6 HT 1-5 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
22.04.2024 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 0-1 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
07.10.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-0 HT 0-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
22.07.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 0-1 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
22.05.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 1-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
11.04.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-1 HT 0-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valmiera / BSS
4-1
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
2.93 xG 1.50
56% Ball Possession 44%
28 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 3
371 Passes 274
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
55 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Valmiera / BSS vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valmiera / BSS cruised past BFC Daugavpils 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Valmiera / BSS as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Valmiera / BSS had 56% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 44%, shots finished 28-11, expected goals 2.93 to 1.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Valmiera / BSS and 0.67 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of Valmiera / BSS vs BFC Daugavpils?

Valmiera / BSS 4-1 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valmiera / BSS vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valmiera / BSS win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Valmiera / BSS 62%, draw 21%, BFC Daugavpils 16%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valmiera / BSS), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Valmiera / BSS) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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