Györi ETO 1-2 MTK Budapest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
28%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.53
No
49%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.29
2-3 Goals
43%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
2.98
6+ Goals
10%
9.09
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.29 — our 25% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
22%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
35%
+10.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.0pp
28%
Away Win
38%
-10.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.4pp
49%
BTTS No
39%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Györi ETO EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 42%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -6%
1.45/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.75
-84% / -51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 72%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 36.0
19.0 Crosses 21.0
0.0 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Györi ETO
1W-2D-3L
AWAY MTK Budapest
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 4
10.04.2023 Györi ETO Györi ETO 1-2 HT 0-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC2
09.10.2022 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-1 HT 1-0 Györi ETO Györi ETO MAC2
18.04.2015 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 2-1 HT 1-1 Györi ETO Györi ETO MAC
27.09.2014 Györi ETO Györi ETO 1-2 HT 0-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
29.03.2014 Györi ETO Györi ETO 3-0 HT 1-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
26.03.2014 Györi ETO Györi ETO 3-3 HT 2-1 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MACK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Györi ETO
1-2
AWAY MTK Budapest
0.50 xG 1.78
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 0
357 Passes 185
79% Pass Accuracy 68%
22 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Györi ETO vs MTK Budapest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MTK Budapest squeezed past Györi ETO 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Györi ETO at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Györi ETO had 62% of the ball to MTK Budapest's 38%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 0.50 to 1.78 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold MTK Budapest's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, MTK Budapest led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Györi ETO and 1.67 for MTK Budapest.

What was the final score of Györi ETO vs MTK Budapest?

Györi ETO 1-2 MTK Budapest in the Hungary - NB I on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Györi ETO vs MTK Budapest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Györi ETO win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Györi ETO 46%, draw 27%, MTK Budapest 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Györi ETO), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Györi ETO) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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