Ujpest 4-1 MOL Fehervar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.66
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.3
6+ Goals
9%
11.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.66 — our 31% vs market 22.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.6pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.6pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+3.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.5pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ujpest EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY MOL Fehervar EU Bookmakers 34%
+6% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -14%
1.68/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.51
+26% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / +8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
354 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 73%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
18.0 Crosses 15.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ujpest
4W-1D-1L
AWAY MOL Fehervar
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.77 xG 1.46
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
244 Passes 397
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 Ujpest Ujpest 2-0 HT 0-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
04.11.2023 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 2-1 HT 0-1 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
29.07.2023 Ujpest Ujpest 2-1 HT 2-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
08.04.2023 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 0-0 HT 0-0 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
09.11.2022 Ujpest Ujpest 2-1 HT 1-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
10.10.2022 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 0-1 HT 0-0 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ujpest
4-1
AWAY MOL Fehervar
1.83 xG 0.99
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 9
303 Passes 374
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 23
9 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ujpest vs MOL Fehervar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ujpest cruised past MOL Fehervar 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ujpest as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Ujpest had 46% of the ball to MOL Fehervar's 54%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.83 to 0.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ujpest had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ujpest and 0.67 for MOL Fehervar.

What was the final score of Ujpest vs MOL Fehervar?

Ujpest 4-1 MOL Fehervar in the Hungary - NB I on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ujpest vs MOL Fehervar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ujpest win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Ujpest 42%, draw 24%, MOL Fehervar 34%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ujpest) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ujpest) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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