Al Ahly 2-1 Masr — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 11 Aug 2024

Al Ahly
2-1 HT 1-0
Masr
📅11/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.03
Over 2.5
43%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.61
No
58%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.88
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.17
6+ Goals
8%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 31% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
45%
+11.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
55%
-11.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
58%
-15.9pp
58%
BTTS No
42%
+15.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahly EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Masr EU Bookmakers 32%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +25% / +25%
1.42/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/0.98
+90% / +57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +85%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
331 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
8.9 Crosses 12.4
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahly
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Masr
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.30 xG 0.80
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
316 Passes 256
77% Pass Accuracy 70%
30 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
11.04.2024 Masr 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
23.09.2020 Masr 0-3 HT 0-1 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
05.01.2020 Al Ahly Al Ahly 3-1 HT 1-0 Masr MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahly
2-1
AWAY Masr
1.63 xG 1.07
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
402 Passes 268
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 11
11 Crosses 9
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Ahly vs Masr
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahly edged past Masr 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Al Ahly as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Al Ahly had 54% of the ball to Masr's 46%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.63 to 1.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Al Ahly had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Al Ahly and 0.33 for Masr.

What was the final score of Al Ahly vs Masr?

Al Ahly 2-1 Masr in the Egypt - Premier League on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahly vs Masr?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahly win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Al Ahly 44%, draw 28%, Masr 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahly) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahly) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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