Lilleström 1-2 Molde — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 11 Aug 2024

Lilleström
1-2 HT 1-1
Molde
📅11/08/2024 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Norway - Eliteserien – 2024

Lilleström vs Molde Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.33
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
42%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.37
2-3 Goals
37%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.95
6+ Goals
12%
8.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.38
1/2
6%
26.5
1/X
8%
12.35
X/1
13%
5.61
X/2 EV+ ✓
18%
6.02
X/X
12%
5.19
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
18%
3.72
2/X
5%
12.45
Value flag · X/2 at 6.02 — our 18% vs market 12.5%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
39%
-6.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
42%
Away Win
35%
+7.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-11.0pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lilleström v Molde — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lilleström EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Molde EU Bookmakers 38%
-6% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +14%
1.34/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.37
-16% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +18%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
293 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 78%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.4
21.2 Crosses 15.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

Lilleström vs Molde Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lilleström
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Molde
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.30 xG 1.69
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
365 Passes 412
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 28
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
07.07.2024 Molde Molde 3-0 HT 2-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
12.11.2023 Molde Molde 4-0 HT 3-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
23.04.2023 Lilleström Lilleström 2-1 HT 2-1 Molde Molde NOR
16.10.2022 Lilleström Lilleström 0-1 HT 0-0 Molde Molde NOR
18.04.2022 Molde Molde 1-2 HT 0-1 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
05.12.2021 Molde Molde 3-3 HT 0-1 Lilleström Lilleström NOR

Lilleström 1-2 Molde — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lilleström
1-2
AWAY Molde
0.34 xG 1.67
59% Ball Possession 41%
7 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
417 Passes 272
79% Pass Accuracy 71%
16 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lilleström vs Molde
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Molde edged past Lilleström 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Molde as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lilleström had 59% of the ball to Molde's 41%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 0.34 to 1.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Molde's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Molde led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lilleström and 2.17 for Molde.

What was the final score of Lilleström vs Molde?

Lilleström 1-2 Molde in the Norway - Eliteserien on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lilleström vs Molde?

Before kick-off our model rated an Molde win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Lilleström 33%, draw 25%, Molde 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Molde), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Molde) ✓ Over 2.5
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