Krylya Sovetov 2-0 Fakel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.51
Over 2.5
42%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.19
No
56%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.22
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
16%
5.57
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.62
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.8
X/1
19%
3.87
X/2
9%
8.01
X/X
12%
3.76
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
14%
7.19
2/X
8%
16.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
50%
-6.0pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.5pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+6.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.5pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krylya Sovetov EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Fakel EU Bookmakers 25%
-9% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
1.70/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.38
-12% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -4%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
421 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 70%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
20.8 Crosses 15.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krylya Sovetov
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Fakel
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.83 xG 0.66
52% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
270 Passes 240
72% Pass Accuracy 67%
21 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
25.04.2024 Fakel Fakel 0-1 HT 0-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
02.09.2023 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 3-0 HT 1-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
28.05.2023 Fakel Fakel 2-1 HT 1-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
27.11.2022 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 1-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUK
29.09.2022 Fakel Fakel 0-1 HT 0-1 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUK
19.08.2022 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 1-1 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krylya Sovetov
2-0
AWAY Fakel
1.67 xG 0.07
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
358 Passes 173
80% Pass Accuracy 66%
26 Box Touches 4
22 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Krylya Sovetov vs Fakel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krylya Sovetov saw off Fakel 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Krylya Sovetov as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Krylya Sovetov had 64% of the ball to Fakel's 36%, shots finished 18-4, expected goals 1.67 to 0.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krylya Sovetov had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Krylya Sovetov and 0.50 for Fakel.

What was the final score of Krylya Sovetov vs Fakel?

Krylya Sovetov 2-0 Fakel in the Russia - Premier League on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krylya Sovetov vs Fakel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krylya Sovetov win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Krylya Sovetov 43%, draw 28%, Fakel 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Krylya Sovetov), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Krylya Sovetov) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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11 Aug 2024
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