Fakel 0-1 Krylya Sovetov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 25 Apr 2024

📅25/04/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
29%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.56
Over 2.5
35%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.99
No
60%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.36
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
5.13
6+ Goals
7%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.75
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.15
X/1
12%
4.99
X/2
11%
5.57
X/X
15%
3.73
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
13%
4.36
2/X
7%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+3.3pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.5pp
30%
Away Win
32%
-2.8pp
65%
Under 2.5
60%
+5.3pp
35%
Over 2.5
40%
-5.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
-6.6pp
60%
BTTS No
54%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fakel EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Krylya Sovetov EU Bookmakers 36%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -13%
1.19/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.42
-40% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
270 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 72%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
24.6 Crosses 15.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fakel
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Krylya Sovetov
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.72 xG 0.90
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
223 Passes 276
66% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
02.09.2023 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 3-0 HT 1-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
28.05.2023 Fakel Fakel 2-1 HT 1-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
27.11.2022 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 1-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUK
29.09.2022 Fakel Fakel 0-1 HT 0-1 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUK
19.08.2022 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 1-1 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
17.04.2021 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 5-1 HT 2-0 Fakel Fakel RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fakel
0-1
AWAY Krylya Sovetov
0.48 xG 0.60
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
290 Passes 252
70% Pass Accuracy 69%
18 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fakel vs Krylya Sovetov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krylya Sovetov edged past Fakel 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Fakel at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Fakel had 54% of the ball to Krylya Sovetov's 46%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 0.48 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krylya Sovetov led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Fakel and 2.00 for Krylya Sovetov.

What was the final score of Fakel vs Krylya Sovetov?

Fakel 0-1 Krylya Sovetov in the Russia - Premier League on 25/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fakel vs Krylya Sovetov?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fakel win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Fakel 42%, draw 29%, Krylya Sovetov 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Fakel) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fakel) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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