Lechia Gdansk 3-3 Motor Lublin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 11 Aug 2025

Lechia Gdansk
3-3 HT 2-2
Motor Lublin
📅11/08/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
20%
3.54
Away
37%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
2.43
Over 2.5
65%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.46
No
37%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
4.9
2-3 Goals
34%
1.92
4-5 Goals
34%
2.6
6+ Goals
14%
6.44
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.97
1/2
5%
26.0
1/X
4%
12.3
X/1
11%
5.48
X/2
12%
6.84
X/X
10%
5.83
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.65
2/2
20%
4.18
2/X
6%
12.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.65 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.4pp
20%
Draw
25%
-4.5pp
37%
Away Win
32%
+5.1pp
35%
Under 2.5
38%
-2.9pp
65%
Over 2.5
62%
+2.9pp
63%
BTTS Yes
64%
-1.1pp
37%
BTTS No
36%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lechia Gdansk v Motor Lublin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 36%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.77/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/1.12
+22% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +71%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
370 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 81%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.3
20.4 Crosses 20.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7

Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lechia Gdansk
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Motor Lublin
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.19 xG 1.40
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
338 Passes 367
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.02.2025 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-1 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
26.07.2024 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-2 HT 0-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
16.12.2023 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-0 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL1
28.07.2023 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-1 HT 0-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL1

Lechia Gdansk 3-3 Motor Lublin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lechia Gdansk
3-3
AWAY Motor Lublin
2.66 xG 0.64
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
250 Passes 230
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
36 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lechia Gdansk and Motor Lublin couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 2-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Lechia Gdansk at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (63%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Lechia Gdansk had 53% of the ball to Motor Lublin's 47%, shots finished 18-14, expected goals 2.66 to 0.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Motor Lublin led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.25 for Motor Lublin.

What was the final score of Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin?

Lechia Gdansk 3-3 Motor Lublin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 11/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lechia Gdansk vs Motor Lublin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lechia Gdansk win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Lechia Gdansk 43%, draw 20%, Motor Lublin 37%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lechia Gdansk) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lechia Gdansk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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