Padova Calcio 2-1 Novara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 11 Nov 2024

📅11/11/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.43
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
22%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.44
No
54%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.64
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.44
6+ Goals
9%
23.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
66%
-13.3pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.9pp
22%
Away Win
12%
+9.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
37%
+9.4pp
54%
BTTS No
63%
-9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Novara EU Bookmakers 15%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.64/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.63
-6% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / +4%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
364 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Padova Calcio
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Novara
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.01.2024 Novara Novara 0-3 HT 0-2 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
20.09.2023 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 2-0 HT 2-0 Novara Novara İTC
26.02.2023 Novara Novara 1-3 HT 0-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
23.10.2022 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-2 HT 0-1 Novara Novara İTC
15.02.2014 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-0 HT 0-0 Novara Novara nan
14.09.2013 Novara Novara 1-0 HT 0-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio nan
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Padova Calcio
2-1
AWAY Novara
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Padova Calcio vs Novara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Padova Calcio squeezed past Novara 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Padova Calcio as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Padova Calcio had 52% of the ball to Novara's 48%, shots finished 18-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Padova Calcio had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Padova Calcio and 0.67 for Novara.

What was the final score of Padova Calcio vs Novara?

Padova Calcio 2-1 Novara in the Italy - Serie C on 11/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Padova Calcio vs Novara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Padova Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Padova Calcio 52%, draw 26%, Novara 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Padova Calcio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Padova Calcio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTC More Italy - Serie C
11 Nov 2024
22:30 Torre Neapolis vs Team Altamura Analysis →
22:30 Taranto vs Audace Cerignola Analysis →