Novara 0-3 Padova Calcio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.75
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
44%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.06
No
52%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.39
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
4.6
6+ Goals
7%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
23%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
23%
+1.7pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.8pp
44%
Away Win
50%
-5.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.1pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novara EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 54%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -2%
2.57/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/0.93
+150% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -3%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
255 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novara
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Padova Calcio
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.09.2023 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 2-0 HT 2-0 Novara Novara İTC
26.02.2023 Novara Novara 1-3 HT 0-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
23.10.2022 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-2 HT 0-1 Novara Novara İTC
15.02.2014 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-0 HT 0-0 Novara Novara nan
14.09.2013 Novara Novara 1-0 HT 0-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio nan
27.04.2013 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 3-3 HT 1-3 Novara Novara İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novara
0-3
AWAY Padova Calcio
51% Ball Possession 49%
7 Total Shots 14
0 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 1
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Novara vs Padova Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Padova Calcio swept aside Novara 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Padova Calcio as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Novara had 51% of the ball to Padova Calcio's 49%, shots finished 7-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Padova Calcio led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Novara and 1.67 for Padova Calcio.

What was the final score of Novara vs Padova Calcio?

Novara 0-3 Padova Calcio in the Italy - Serie C on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novara vs Padova Calcio?

Before kick-off our model rated an Padova Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Novara 25%, draw 31%, Padova Calcio 44%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Padova Calcio), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Padova Calcio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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