SPAL 1-3 Juventus II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
31%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.48
Over 2.5
44%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.19
No
55%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.09
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
5.56
6+ Goals
8%
38.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-2.0pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.2pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
64%
-7.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
36%
+7.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.3pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SPAL EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventus II EU Bookmakers 28%
-16% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.32/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.40
-2% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
334 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SPAL
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Juventus II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
19.09.2023 Juventus II Juventus II 0-1 HT 0-0 SPAL SPAL İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME SPAL
1-3
AWAY Juventus II
52% Ball Possession 48%
21 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH SPAL vs Juventus II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Juventus II beat SPAL 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was SPAL at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, SPAL had 52% of the ball to Juventus II's 48%, shots finished 21-14.

What was the final score of SPAL vs Juventus II?

SPAL 1-3 Juventus II in the Italy - Serie C on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SPAL vs Juventus II?

Before kick-off our model rated a SPAL win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split SPAL 45%, draw 24%, Juventus II 30%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (SPAL) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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