Al Safa 2-1 Al Bukayriyah — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia - 1st Division, 11 Dec 2024

📅11/12/2024 · 🕒17:25 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.99
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
38%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.52
Over
43%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
35%
2-3
41%
4-5
17%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+1.5pp
30%
Draw
31%
-0.3pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-1.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.7pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Safa EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Bukayriyah EU Bookmakers 43%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.05/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/0.51
-5% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +120%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
303 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Safa
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Al Bukayriyah
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.01.2024 Al Safa Al Safa 2-1 HT 0-0 Al Bukayriyah Al Bukayriyah SUUD1
16.08.2023 Al Bukayriyah Al Bukayriyah 2-0 HT 2-0 Al Safa Al Safa SUUD1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Safa
2-1
AWAY Al Bukayriyah
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Safa vs Al Bukayriyah
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Safa squeezed past Al Bukayriyah 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 30% / 38% — and on the day Al Safa made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Al Safa had 43% of the ball to Al Bukayriyah's 57%, shots finished 9-14.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Al Safa and 1.50 for Al Bukayriyah.

What was the final score of Al Safa vs Al Bukayriyah?

Al Safa 2-1 Al Bukayriyah in the Saudi Arabia - 1st Division on 11/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Safa vs Al Bukayriyah?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Bukayriyah win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Al Safa 32%, draw 30%, Al Bukayriyah 38%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Al Bukayriyah) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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