Odense 1-0 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - DBU Cup, 11 Dec 2025

📅11/12/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.08
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
51%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.63
No
42%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.68
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.19
6+ Goals
11%
10.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
5.13
1/2
8%
24.0
1/X
5%
13.5
X/1
9%
7.33
X/2
18%
5.0
X/X
13%
5.04
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
32.5
2/2
26%
2.84
2/X
4%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 32.5 — our 8% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
29%
-2.5pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.7pp
51%
Away Win
45%
+6.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
57%
+0.9pp
42%
BTTS No
43%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Odense EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 49%
-50% / -50% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.56/0.87
-40% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / +56%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
324 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 466 · 83%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
4.0 Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Odense
0W-3D-3L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.35 xG 1.74
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
321 Passes 423
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
18.08.2025 Odense Odense 1-5 HT 1-2 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
06.07.2025 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-0 HT 0-0 Odense Odense HAZ
03.03.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 0-0 Odense Odense DAN
20.08.2023 Odense Odense 1-1 HT 1-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
19.03.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-0 HT 1-0 Odense Odense DAN
07.08.2022 Odense Odense 1-2 HT 1-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Odense
1-0
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.47 xG 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 8
392 Passes 431
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
21 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Odense vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Odense edged past AGF Aarhus 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was AGF Aarhus at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Odense had 48% of the ball to AGF Aarhus's 52%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.47 to 1.00.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AGF Aarhus led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Odense and 1.67 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of Odense vs AGF Aarhus?

Odense 1-0 AGF Aarhus in the Denmark - DBU Cup on 11/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Odense vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated an AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Odense 26%, draw 22%, AGF Aarhus 51%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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