Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 12 Jan 2025

📅12/01/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.34
Draw
26%
4.49
Away
18%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.27
No
53%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.24
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.42
6+ Goals
9%
13.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 27% vs market 24.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.64
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
22.55
X/1
16%
3.31
X/2
6%
17.75
X/X
12%
6.22
2/1
10%
26.5
2/2
7%
15.75
2/X
5%
23.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
70%
-14.0pp
26%
Draw
19%
+7.4pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+6.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
40%
+6.8pp
53%
BTTS No
60%
-6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Osasuna EU Bookmakers 14%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +21%
1.92/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.81
+1% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +12%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
427 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 73%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
19.1 Crosses 15.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Osasuna
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.45 xG 0.94
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
388 Passes 375
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 2
19.05.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-4 HT 0-1 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
28.09.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
21.05.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-0 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
29.01.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
19.02.2022 Osasuna Osasuna 0-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
20.11.2021 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
1-0
AWAY Osasuna
2.54 xG 0.28
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 0
472 Passes 455
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 10
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid edged past Osasuna 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 51% of the ball to Osasuna's 49%, shots finished 9-6, expected goals 2.54 to 0.28 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Atletico Madrid's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.67 for Osasuna.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?

Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna in the Spain - Primera Liga on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 56%, draw 26%, Osasuna 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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