Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Atletico Madrid v Osasuna — Team-Based Signals
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-1
Atletico Madrid
İS1
3-0
HT 1-0
Osasuna
İS1
0-1
HT 0-0
Atletico Madrid
İS1
0-3
HT 0-1
Atletico Madrid
İS1
1-0
HT 0-0
Osasuna
İS1
Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna — Actual Match Statistics
Atletico Madrid edged past Osasuna 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Atletico Madrid had 51% of the ball to Osasuna's 49%, shots finished 9-6, expected goals 2.54 to 0.28 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Atletico Madrid's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.67 for Osasuna.
What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna in the Spain - Primera Liga on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 56%, draw 26%, Osasuna 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.