Atletico Madrid 1-4 Osasuna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 19 May 2024

Atletico Madrid
1-4 HT 0-1
Osasuna
📅19/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.37
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
21%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.84
2-3 Goals
44%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.19
6+ Goals
10%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.84 — our 24% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.58
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
22.3
X/1
16%
3.35
X/2
8%
17.9
X/X
6%
6.76
2/1
6%
24.45
2/2
8%
15.1
2/X
5%
23.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
69%
-12.1pp
22%
Draw
20%
+2.0pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+10.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.3pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Madrid v Osasuna — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Osasuna EU Bookmakers 14%
+3% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +12%
1.92/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.78
+4% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
394 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 79%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
17.9 Crosses 16.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4

Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Osasuna
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.62 xG 0.68
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
410 Passes 350
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.09.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
21.05.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-0 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
29.01.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
19.02.2022 Osasuna Osasuna 0-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
20.11.2021 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
16.05.2021 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-1 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1

Atletico Madrid 1-4 Osasuna — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
1-4
AWAY Osasuna
1.56 xG 1.91
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
411 Passes 291
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
48 Box Touches 27
26 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osasuna ran out comfortable winners over Atletico Madrid 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Atletico Madrid carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 57% of the ball to Osasuna's 43%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.56 to 1.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.17 for Osasuna.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?

Atletico Madrid 1-4 Osasuna in the Spain - Primera Liga on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 57%, draw 22%, Osasuna 22%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Madrid), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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