Valencia 1-3 Girona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 19 May 2024

Valencia
1-3 HT 0-1
Girona
📅19/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Valencia vs Girona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
40%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.88
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.17
6+ Goals
9%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 27% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
5.37
1/2
8%
23.15
1/X
5%
13.8
X/1
10%
7.6
X/2
22%
4.48
X/X
12%
5.16
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
10%
2.58
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
27%
+7.3pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.0pp
40%
Away Win
48%
-8.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.6pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Valencia v Girona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valencia EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Girona EU Bookmakers 52%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.12/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.27
+13% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -74% / +19%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
301 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 82%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.2
20.1 Crosses 18.7
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Valencia vs Girona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valencia
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Girona
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.32 xG 1.25
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
303 Passes 427
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.12.2023 Girona Girona 2-1 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
05.02.2023 Girona Girona 1-0 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
14.08.2022 Valencia Valencia 1-0 HT 1-0 Girona Girona İS1
10.03.2019 Girona Girona 2-3 HT 1-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
03.11.2018 Valencia Valencia 0-1 HT 0-0 Girona Girona İS1
12.05.2018 Girona Girona 0-1 HT 0-0 Valencia Valencia İS1

Valencia 1-3 Girona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valencia
1-3
AWAY Girona
3.17 xG 2.62
36% Ball Possession 64%
20 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
298 Passes 573
87% Pass Accuracy 91%
30 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Valencia vs Girona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Girona got the better of Valencia 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (34% / 26% / 40%) promised a tight game; Girona found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Valencia had 36% of the ball to Girona's 64%, shots finished 20-18, expected goals 3.17 to 2.62 — on chances, Valencia could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Valencia and 1.00 for Girona.

What was the final score of Valencia vs Girona?

Valencia 1-3 Girona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valencia vs Girona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Girona win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Valencia 34%, draw 26%, Girona 40%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Girona), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Girona) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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